2026 Week 11 · Conference game
California at Virginia
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Scott Stadium
California
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 3.0
- National rank
- 59
- Proj. wins
- 5.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Virginia
ACC
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 8.1
- National rank
- 37
- Proj. wins
- 9.0
- Playoff prob.
- 13%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
California
28%
Virginia
72%
Virginia 90% CI: 64% – 79% Δ rating 5.1
Virginia is the model's favorite at 72%. California has a 28% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Virginia — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
California offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Virginia offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Scott Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No