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California

Golden Bears · ACC

GIE rank
#123
of 138 FBS
Rating
1384
2026 Week 11
Record
3-6
2026 season
Proj record
4-8
12-game season

Head coach Tosh Lupoi Year 1 with California

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
4.1
1.1 more wins in 3 left
Win range (90%)
3 to 6
Final rank (90%)
#121 (109–129)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes California's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 6 vs UCLA Big Ten Loss, 24-45 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at Syracuse ACC Win, 21-18 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Wagner Non-FBS Win, 49-7 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Clemson ACC Loss, 10-24 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 at UNLV Mountain West Loss, 31-39 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Virginia Tech ACC Win, 25-20 Final
Wk 7 Oct 18 vs Wake Forest ACC Loss, 7-41 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at SMU ACC Loss, 20-59 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at NC State ACC Loss, 10-31 Final
Wk 10 Bye
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Virginia ACC Win probability: 11%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Stanford ACC Win probability: 65%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Pittsburgh ACC Win probability: 15%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    California: 2026 Week 11 recap

    California sits at 3–6 with a rating of –8.2, unchanged from last week after a 31–10 loss at NC State in Week 9. The Bears' offense remains a significant constraint: a red-zone TD rate of 14% and third-down conversion rate of 38% signal…

  • Recap

    California: 2026 Week 7 recap

    California sits at 2–3 after a 39–31 road loss to UNLV in Week 5, with GIE holding the Bears at a rating of –3.2 and a projected 4.1 wins for the season. The offense continues to struggle in critical moments: a red-zone TD rate of 14% and…

  • Recap

    California: 2026 Week 3 recap

    California sits at 59th overall after dropping its season opener to UCLA 45–24 at home in Week 1. The rating held steady week-over-week, suggesting GIE saw little to adjust: the loss itself was the story, not a surprise. Red-zone…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

53 score

  • Quarterback 99% (4/6)
  • Offensive line 50% (10/20) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 27% (13/28)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 24% (17/32)
  • Secondary 38% (14/19)
  • Special teams 14% (4/9)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+1.0 rating

32 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

California incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Dorian ThomasTE From New Mexico New Mexico 220
Chase HendricksWR From Ohio Ohio 189
Ian StrongWR From Rutgers Rutgers 139
Ashten EmoryRB From UTEP UTEP 94
Adam MohammedRB From Washington Washington 92
Jackson BrousseauQB From Colorado State Colorado State 57

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 37.7%
    57th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 14.3%
    45th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 37.3%
    56th — average
  • Late & close 4.9 yds/play
    45th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.