Boise State at Oregon
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 3:30 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boise State | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 27 |
 Oregon Winner | 0 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 34 |
GIE pre-game call: Oregon at 76%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Boise State 24% Underdog
Oregon 76% Favorite
Oregon is the model's favorite at 76%. Boise State has a 24% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.0 rating points baked in for Oregon — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- Oregon recap Oregon: 2026 Week 11 recap Oregon sits at 5–3 after a 34–26 home win over Northwestern in Week 9, holding a GIE rating of 17 and ranked 12th. The Ducks haven't shifted in the model's assessment week-over-week, suggesting the victory merely confirmed what was…
- Boise State recap Boise State: 2026 Week 11 recap Boise State sits at 7–1 and holds a 29th ranking despite flat momentum: the rating stayed at 10.9 this week following a narrow 46–45 home win over Texas State in Week 9. The razor-thin margin exposed a real vulnerability—red-zone…