2026 Week 1
Fresno State at USC
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -1.4
- National rank
- 73
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
USC
Big Ten
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 17.7
- National rank
- 12
- Proj. wins
- 7.8
- Playoff prob.
- 19%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Fresno State
6%
USC
94%
USC 90% CI: 91% – 96% Δ rating 19.1
USC is the model's favorite at 94%. Fresno State has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for USC — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Fresno State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
USC offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
72°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
5 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 1:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No