Fresno State at USC
Friday, September 4, 2026 · 9:00 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fresno State | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 USC Winner | 7 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 39 |
GIE pre-game call: USC at 87%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Fresno State 13% Underdog
USC 87% Favorite
USC is the model's favorite at 87%. Fresno State has a 13% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.6 rating points baked in for USC — venue-specific night-game value (n=62 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.