Bulldogs · Pac-12
Head coach Matt Entz Year 2 with Fresno State
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
No remaining game changes Fresno State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | at USC Big Ten | Loss, 0-39 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 13 | vs Sacramento State Mid-American | Win, 49-3 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 20 | at San José State Mountain West | Win, 26-10 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 27 | vs Rice American Athletic | Win, 38-24 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 4 | at Washington State Pac-12 | Win, 26-6 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 11 | vs Boise State Pac-12 | Loss, 31-38 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 18 | at San Diego State Pac-12 | Loss, 23-26 Final |
| Wk 8 | Bye | |
| Wk 9 Nov 1 | vs Oregon State Pac-12 | Win, 38-22 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 8 | at Utah State Pac-12 | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | at Texas State Pac-12 | |
| Wk 12 Nov 22 | vs Colorado State Pac-12 | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a 0.3 rating drop and a 1.4pp shift in playoff probability if Fresno State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
45 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−1.3 rating
12 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Tariq ThomasRB From Bucknell | Bucknell | 44 |
| Taylor PowellDB From Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois | 35 |
| Jake ApplegetTE From Northern Illinois | Northern Illinois | 22 |
| Khristian MartinQB From Maryland | Maryland | 5 |
| Micah MosleyDL From Sacramento State | Sacramento State | 4 |
| Maverick NoonanDL From Nebraska | Nebraska | 4 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
