2026 Week 6 · Conference game
Boise State at Fresno State
Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
Valley Children's Stadium
Boise State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 5.1
- National rank
- 49
- Proj. wins
- 5.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Fresno State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -1.4
- National rank
- 73
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Boise State
63%
Fresno State
37%
Fresno State 90% CI: 29% – 47% Δ rating 6.5
Boise State is the model's favorite at 63%. Fresno State has a 37% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Fresno State — venue-specific learned value (n=47 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Boise State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Fresno State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
- Venue
- Valley Children's Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No