Conference game
Colorado State at Fresno State
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 7:30 PM EST
GIE win probability
Colorado State 16% Underdog
Fresno State 84% Favorite
Fresno State is the model's favorite at 84%. Colorado State has a 16% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.1 rating points baked in for Fresno State — venue-specific learned value (n=46 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Colorado State offense
34 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Fresno State offense
Higher fit 42 / 100 Style-neutral matchup