2026 Week 3
Buffalo at Penn State
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Beaver Stadium
Buffalo
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -12.7
- National rank
- 111
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Penn State
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 16.2
- National rank
- 17
- Proj. wins
- 8.9
- Playoff prob.
- 33%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Buffalo
2%
Penn State
98%
Penn State 90% CI: 97% – 99% Δ rating 28.9
Penn State is the model's favorite at 98%. Buffalo has a 2% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.0 rating points baked in for Penn State — venue-specific learned value (n=65 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Buffalo offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Penn State offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Beaver Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No