Nittany Lions · Big Ten
Head coach Matt Campbell Year 2 with Penn State
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
No remaining game changes Penn State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs Marshall Sun Belt | Win, 45-0 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | at Temple American Athletic | Win, 27-9 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Buffalo Mid-American | Win, 55-13 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs Wisconsin Big Ten | Loss, 20-24 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | at Northwestern Big Ten | Loss, 13-34 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | vs USC Big Ten | Loss, 23-31 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | at Michigan Big Ten | Loss, 18-21 Final |
| Wk 8 | Bye | |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | vs Purdue Big Ten | Win, 31-17 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | at Washington Big Ten | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Minnesota Big Ten | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Rutgers Big Ten | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | at Maryland Big Ten | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a -5.0 rating drop and a -19.8pp shift in playoff probability if Penn State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=4 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
19 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
+2.5 rating
38 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Neal Jr.S From Iowa State | Iowa State | 206 |
| Benjamin BrahmerTE From Iowa State | Iowa State | 192 |
| Carson HansenRB From Iowa State | Iowa State | 154 |
| Caleb BaconLB From Iowa State | Iowa State | 128 |
| Gabe BurkleTE From Iowa State | Iowa State | 119 |
| Rocco BechtQB From Iowa State | Iowa State | 111 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
