Conference game
Minnesota at Penn State
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Minnesota 28% Underdog
Penn State 72% Favorite
Penn State is the model's favorite at 72%. Minnesota has a 28% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for Penn State — venue-specific learned value (n=63 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Minnesota offense
35 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Penn State offense
Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup