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Minnesota

Golden Gophers · Big Ten

GIE rank
#65
of 138 FBS
Rating
1564
2026 Week 11
Record
5-3
2026 season
Proj record
7-5
12-game season

Head coach P.J. Fleck Year 10 with Minnesota

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
6.5
1.5 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
5 to 8
Final rank (90%)
#66 (47–85)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Minnesota's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 4 vs Eastern Illinois Non-FBS Win, 59-7 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Mississippi State SEC Loss, 13-38 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Akron Mid-American Win, 41-7 Final
Wk 4 Sep 27 at Washington Big Ten Win, 27-24 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Michigan Big Ten Win, 20-14 Final
Wk 6 Oct 11 at Purdue Big Ten Loss, 13-41 Final
Wk 7 Bye
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs Iowa Big Ten Win, 13-10 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Indiana Big Ten Loss, 16-23 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs UCLA Big Ten Win probability: 27%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Penn State Big Ten Win probability: 27%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Northwestern Big Ten Win probability: 29%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Wisconsin Big Ten Win probability: 29%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Minnesota: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Minnesota sits at 5-3 with a rating of 3.9 and remains ranked 57th after absorbing a 23-16 road loss to Indiana in Week 9. The Gophers' offense has struggled to capitalize in crucial moments—their red-zone TD rate of 13% reflects missed…

  • Recap

    Minnesota: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Minnesota sits at 52nd overall with a 4–1 record after beating Michigan 20–14 at home in Week 5, though GIE's rating held steady at 6.5, suggesting the model views the win as confirmation rather than a breakthrough. The Gophers' strength…

  • Recap

    Minnesota: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Minnesota sits at 40th overall with a 6.2 rating after dismantling Eastern Illinois 59–7 in Week 1, though GIE has held the rating flat since then. The lopsided win masks some underlying concerns: a red-zone TD rate of 13% and third-down…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

73 score

  • Quarterback 100% (3/5)
  • Offensive line 65% (11/17) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 53% (12/27)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 68% (22/32)
  • Secondary 42% (11/19)
  • Special teams 89% (4/10)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.1 rating

18 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Minnesota incoming transfers
Player From Impact
TJ Bush Jr.DL From California California 123
Andrew MarshallLB From Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan 66
Zion SteptoeWR From Tulsa Tulsa 61
Noah JenningsWR From Cincinnati Cincinnati 59
Xion ChapmanDL From Florida International Florida International 58
Naquan CrowderDL From Marshall Marshall 57

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 43.6%
    88th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.8%
    30th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 32.3%
    30th — below avg
  • Late & close 5.0 yds/play
    48th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.