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Conference game

Washington at Michigan State

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST

GIE win probability

Washington 80% Favorite
Michigan State 20% Underdog
Washington 90% CI
74–86%
Δ rating
Washington +12.5

Washington is the model's favorite at 80%. Michigan State has a 20% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.2 rating points baked in for Michigan State — venue-specific learned value (n=58 games).

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Washington offense Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Michigan State offense 32 / 100 Style-neutral matchup