2026 Week 3
North Texas at Texas State
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
North Texas
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -11.6
- National rank
- 105
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 10%
Texas State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -2.1
- National rank
- 77
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Texas
21%
Texas State
79%
Texas State 90% CI: 72% – 84% Δ rating 9.5
Texas State is the model's favorite at 79%. North Texas has a 21% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.1 rating points baked in for Texas State — venue-specific learned value (n=52 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Texas offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Texas State offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Bobcat Stadium (TX)
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No