Conference game
Utah State at San Diego State
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 9:30 PM EST
GIE win probability
Utah State 37% Underdog
San Diego State 63% Favorite
San Diego State is the model's favorite at 63%. Utah State has a 37% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.7 rating points baked in for San Diego State — venue-specific night-game value (n=26 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Utah State offense
32 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
San Diego State offense
Higher fit 36 / 100 Style-neutral matchup