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San Diego State

Aztecs · Pac-12

GIE rank
#105
of 138 FBS
Rating
1442
2026 Week 11
Record
4-5
2026 season
Proj record
5-6
11-game season

Head coach Sean Lewis Year 3 with San Diego State

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
4.6
0.6 more wins in 2 left
Win range (90%)
4 to 6
Final rank (90%)
#105 (95–113)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes San Diego State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 6 vs Portland State Non-FBS Win, 53-20 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at UCLA Big Ten Loss, 10-28 Final
Wk 3 Sep 20 vs James Madison Sun Belt Loss, 13-26 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Toledo Mid-American Loss, 16-41 Final
Wk 5 Oct 4 vs Texas State Pac-12 Win, 31-29 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 at Oregon State Pac-12 Loss, 14-66 Final
Wk 7 Oct 18 vs Fresno State Pac-12 Win, 26-23 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Colorado State Pac-12 Loss, 49-56 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs Washington State Pac-12 Win, 26-20 Final
Wk 10 Bye
Wk 11 Nov 15 vs Utah State Pac-12 Win probability: 60%
Wk 12 Nov 22 at Boise State Pac-12 Win probability: 6%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    San Diego State: 2026 Week 11 recap

    San Diego State holds steady at 4–5 after a Week 9 home win over Washington State, 26–20, though GIE's rating hasn't budged—still -8.6 and ranked 104th. The Aztecs have won their last two games, but offensive efficiency remains the…

  • Recap

    San Diego State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    San Diego State sits at a 2–3 record with a rating of –7.8, holding rank 100 overall—a standing that hasn't budged since last week despite the Aztecs' narrow 31–29 home win over Texas State in Week 5. The victory showcased late-game…

  • Recap

    San Diego State: 2026 Week 3 recap

    San Diego State sits at 65th nationally with a 1–0 record after demolishing Portland State 53–20 in Week 1, though GIE's rating held steady at 0.7, suggesting the model views that margin as expected rather than transformative. The Aztecs'…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Jayden Denegal

GIE projects a -2.1 rating drop and a -8.5pp shift in playoff probability if San Diego State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

75 score

  • Quarterback 100% (5/5)
  • Offensive line 87% (13/15) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 87% (21/28)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 37% (19/29)
  • Secondary 46% (15/20)
  • Special teams 5% (6/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.6 rating

24 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

San Diego State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Jalen ThomesonS From Ohio Ohio 146
Aldrich DoeWR From Bryant Bryant 43
Javion KinnardRB From Colorado State Colorado State 40
Kai WallinLB From Oregon State Oregon State 38
Jason OliverCB From Sacramento State Sacramento State 32
Djibril Abdou RahmanDL From Rutgers Rutgers 29

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 30.8%
    17th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 13.4%
    35th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 31.9%
    28th — below avg
  • Late & close 3.7 yds/play
    20th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.