2026 Week 1
Florida International at South Florida
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Raymond James Stadium
Florida International
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -14.5
- National rank
- 115
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
South Florida
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -1.7
- National rank
- 74
- Proj. wins
- 8.9
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Florida International
14%
South Florida
86%
South Florida 90% CI: 81% – 90% Δ rating 12.8
South Florida is the model's favorite at 86%. Florida International has a 14% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.8 rating points baked in for South Florida — venue-specific night-game value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Florida International offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
South Florida offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
84°F
Precipitation
9%
Wind
7 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Raymond James Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No