2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Memphis at Charlotte
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Jerry Richardson Stadium
Memphis
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 0.3
- National rank
- 67
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
Charlotte
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -24.1
- National rank
- 132
- Proj. wins
- 1.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Memphis
95%
Charlotte
5%
Charlotte 90% CI: 3% – 7% Δ rating 24.4
Memphis is the model's favorite at 95%. Charlotte has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.5 rating points baked in for Charlotte — venue-specific learned value (n=46 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Memphis offense
43 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Charlotte offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Jerry Richardson Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No