Search 4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind
Conference game

North Texas at UTSA

Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST

GIE win probability

North Texas 27% Underdog
UTSA 73% Favorite
UTSA 90% CI
65–80%
Δ rating
UTSA +4.1

UTSA is the model's favorite at 73%. North Texas has a 27% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.8 rating points baked in for UTSA — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

North Texas offense Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
UTSA offense 38 / 100 Style-neutral matchup