Conference game
Memphis at Navy
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Memphis 65% Favorite
Navy 35% Underdog
Memphis is the model's favorite at 65%. Navy has a 35% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.5 rating points baked in for Navy — venue-specific learned value (n=46 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Memphis offense
Higher fit 40 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Navy offense
28 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup