Conference game
Florida Atlantic at East Carolina
Friday, November 27, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Florida Atlantic 42% Underdog
East Carolina 58% Favorite
East Carolina is the model's favorite at 58%. Florida Atlantic has a 42% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.2 rating points baked in for East Carolina — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Florida Atlantic offense
40 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
East Carolina offense
Higher fit 42 / 100 Style-neutral matchup