2026 Week 11 · Conference game
San José State at Air Force
Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Falcon Stadium
San José State
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-1
- Rating
- -15.7
- National rank
- 121
- Proj. wins
- 4.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Air Force
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -3.2
- National rank
- 84
- Proj. wins
- 6.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
San José State
14%
Air Force
86%
Air Force 90% CI: 81% – 90% Δ rating 12.5
Air Force is the model's favorite at 86%. San José State has a 14% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Air Force — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
San José State offense
52 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Air Force offense
24 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, November 15, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Falcon Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No