2026 Week 2
New Mexico State at Hawai'i
Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 3:59 AM UTC
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
New Mexico State
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-1
- Rating
- -18.5
- National rank
- 125
- Proj. wins
- 4.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Hawai'i
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-1
- Rating
- -2.6
- National rank
- 83
- Proj. wins
- 6.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
New Mexico State
7%
Hawai'i
93%
Hawai'i 90% CI: 90% – 95% Δ rating 15.9
Hawai'i is the model's favorite at 93%. New Mexico State has a 7% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.3 rating points baked in for Hawai'i — venue-specific learned value (n=26 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
New Mexico State offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Hawai'i offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Light drizzle
Temperature
76°F
Precipitation
25%
Wind
10 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 3:59 AM UTC
- Venue
- Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No