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New Mexico State

Aggies · Conference USA

GIE rank
#120
of 138 FBS
Rating
1394
2026 Week 11
Record
3-5
2026 season
Proj record
4-8
12-game season

Head coach Tony Sanchez Year 3 with New Mexico State

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
4.4
1.4 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
3 to 6
Final rank (90%)
#119 (104–129)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes New Mexico State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Aug 29 at Florida State ACC Loss, 17-34 Final
Wk 1 Sep 6 vs Mercyhurst Non-FBS Win, 51-14 Final
Wk 2 Sep 13 at Hawai'i Mountain West Loss, 19-29 Final
Wk 3 Bye
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs New Mexico Mountain West Loss, 18-42 Final
Wk 5 Oct 2 vs Western Kentucky Conference USA Win, 34-13 Final
Wk 6 Oct 7 at Florida International Conference USA Loss, 3-22 Final
Wk 7 Bye
Wk 8 Oct 22 at Sam Houston Conference USA Win, 30-24 Final
Wk 9 Oct 29 vs Jacksonville State Conference USA Loss, 0-24 Final
Wk 10 Nov 8 vs Liberty Conference USA Win probability: 9%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Missouri State Conference USA Win probability: 53%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Delaware Conference USA Win probability: 52%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Middle Tennessee Conference USA Win probability: 48%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    New Mexico State: 2026 Week 11 recap

    New Mexico State sits at 3–5 with a rating of –13.4, holding steady at 119th nationally. The Aggies got shutout at home by Jacksonville State 24–0 in Week 9, a result that underscores deeper offensive struggles: a red-zone TD rate of just…

  • Recap

    New Mexico State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    New Mexico State sits at 2–3 with a rating of –17.8, holding steady from the prior week after a dominant 34–13 home win over Western Kentucky in Week 5. That victory demonstrated offensive firepower, but the rating hasn't budged—a sign…

  • Recap

    New Mexico State: 2026 Week 3 recap

    New Mexico State sits at 1–1 after a dominant 51–14 win over Mercyhurst in Week 1, though GIE hasn't budged the needle—the Aggies remain ranked 125th nationally with a rating of –18.5. The blowout masked some underlying efficiency issues:…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Logan Fife

GIE projects a 1.7 rating drop and a 6.9pp shift in playoff probability if New Mexico State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

38 score

  • Quarterback 24% (1/6)
  • Offensive line 56% (10/18) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 40% (14/28)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 46% (20/31)
  • Secondary 47% (8/19)
  • Special teams 11% (3/6)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.7 rating

24 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

New Mexico State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
James JonesRB From Delaware State Delaware State 70
Trey HeddenQB From Furman Furman 58
Josiah ThomasTE From Western Carolina Western Carolina 45
Lyndon RavareWR From Kennesaw State Kennesaw State 43
RJ ChapmanS From Merrimack Merrimack 36
Tayden BarnesS From Cincinnati Cincinnati 27

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 41.7%
    79th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.9%
    32th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 29.5%
    20th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 6.6 yds/play
    85th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.