Conference game
Ball State at Massachusetts
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 7:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Ball State 21% Underdog
Massachusetts 79% Favorite
Massachusetts is the model's favorite at 79%. Ball State has a 21% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.4 rating points baked in for Massachusetts — venue-specific learned value (n=38 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ball State offense
Higher fit 42 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Massachusetts offense
41 / 100 Style-neutral matchup