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Massachusetts

Minutemen · Mid-American

GIE rank
#102
of 138 FBS
Rating
1453
2026 Week 11
Record
4-4
2026 season
Proj record
6-6
12-game season

Head coach Joe Harasymiak Year 2 with Massachusetts

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
6.2
2.2 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
5 to 8
Final rank (90%)
#101 (84–115)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Massachusetts's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 3 at Rutgers Big Ten Win, 37-21 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Sacred Heart Non-FBS Win, 37-10 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Stonehill Non-FBS Win, 36-14 Final
Wk 4 Sep 27 at Sacramento State Mid-American Win, 35-6 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Eastern Michigan Mid-American Loss, 14-38 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Miami (OH) Mid-American Loss, 19-20 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Buffalo Mid-American Loss, 18-25 Final
Wk 8 Oct 23 at UConn FBS Independents Loss, 16-35 Final
Wk 9 Bye
Wk 10 Nov 5 vs Ball State Mid-American Win probability: 81%
Wk 11 Nov 11 at Toledo Mid-American Win probability: 12%
Wk 12 Nov 18 vs Akron Mid-American Win probability: 89%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Bowling Green Mid-American Win probability: 64%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Massachusetts: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Massachusetts sits at 4–4 with a rating of –11.1, unchanged from last week despite a 35–16 loss to UConn in Week 8. The Minutemen's offensive inefficiency is the story: a red-zone TD rate of just 13% and third-down conversion rate of 31%…

  • Recap

    Massachusetts: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Massachusetts sits at 4–1 but hasn't moved in GIE's estimation—a stagnant rating of –6.2 masks a troubling reality. The week-5 home loss to Eastern Michigan (38–14) exposed fundamental issues: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 12.8% and…

  • Recap

    Massachusetts: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Massachusetts sits at 1–0 after a stunning 37–21 road win at Rutgers in Week 1, though GIE's rating has held flat at –32.9, keeping them ranked 138th. The model isn't sold on the upset—a red-zone TD rate of just 13% suggests the Minutemen…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

AJ Hairston

GIE projects a -0.9 rating drop and a -3.8pp shift in playoff probability if Massachusetts loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

26 score

  • Quarterback 0% (1/5)
  • Offensive line 50% (8/16) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 25% (13/26)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 30% (9/29)
  • Secondary 60% (10/14)
  • Special teams 4% (3/7)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.8 rating

26 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Massachusetts incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Devin MatthewsWR From East Texas A&M East Texas A&M 62
Jahmad HarmonS From Ball State Ball State 58
Jordan WashingtonRB From Murray State Murray State 38
Justin Williams-ThomasRB From Marshall Marshall 33
Logan InagawaQB From Drake Drake 32
William DePaepeDL From Indiana Indiana 20

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 31.1%
    19th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.8%
    30th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 40.5%
    68th — average
  • Late & close 5.2 yds/play
    54th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.