Conference game
App State at Marshall
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
App State 67% Favorite
Marshall 33% Underdog
App State is the model's favorite at 67%. Marshall has a 33% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.2 rating points baked in for Marshall — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
App State offense
Higher fit 45 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Marshall offense
35 / 100 Style-neutral matchup