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App State

Mountaineers · Sun Belt

GIE rank
#84
of 138 FBS
Rating
1503
2026 Week 11
Record
5-3
2026 season
Proj record
7-5
12-game season

Head coach Dowell Loggains Year 2 with App State

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
7.4
2.4 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
6 to 9
Final rank (90%)
#84 (67–100)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
1%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes App State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Maine Non-FBS Win, 55-3 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at East Carolina American Athletic Win, 27-24 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Charlotte American Athletic Win, 26-21 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at NC State ACC Loss, 31-41 Final
Wk 5 Bye
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Old Dominion Sun Belt Loss, 3-10 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Coastal Carolina Sun Belt Win, 35-32 Final
Wk 8 Oct 22 vs James Madison Sun Belt Win, 34-31 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Georgia Southern Sun Belt Loss, 3-19 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Georgia State Sun Belt Win probability: 70%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Marshall Sun Belt Win probability: 60%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs UL Monroe Sun Belt Win probability: 94%
Wk 13 Nov 27 at South Alabama Sun Belt Win probability: 63%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    App State: 2026 Week 11 recap

    App State sits at 5–3 with a rating of −4.9, ranking 95th nationally—unchanged from last week despite a lopsided 19–3 loss to Georgia Southern in Week 9. The offense has been a drag all season: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 18% and…

  • Recap

    App State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    App State sits at 3–1 with a rating of −4.4, holding rank 89 overall, though the model sees a ceiling of roughly 7.7 wins for the season. The loss to NC State (41–31 in Week 4) exposed real limitations: a red-zone TD rate of just 18% and…

  • Recap

    App State: 2026 Week 3 recap

    App State sits at 111th in GIE's ratings after a dominant 55–3 win over Maine in Week 1, though the rating hasn't budged since—a sign the model saw that performance as fairly predictable. The Mountaineers' offense has executed in the red…

In the news

Headlines mentioning App State from across the web will surface here as the news harvester picks them up.

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

AJ Swann

GIE projects a 5.5 rating drop and a 21.8pp shift in playoff probability if App State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=6 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

43 score

  • Quarterback 6% (3/6)
  • Offensive line 72% (13/18) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 73% (17/26)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 66% (22/32)
  • Secondary 27% (9/18)
  • Special teams 1% (4/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.3 rating

35 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

App State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Chris LoftonWR From Gardner-Webb Gardner-Webb 83
Keshawn ThomasLB From Old Dominion Old Dominion 77
Darrin FugittTE From Lindenwood Lindenwood 66
Cary GrantDB From Charlotte Charlotte 54
Joshua WilliamsDB From Dayton Dayton 52
Sam Pickett IIIWR From Samford Samford 43

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 32.7%
    27th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 18.2%
    80th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 42.4%
    76th — strong
  • Late & close 4.7 yds/play
    39th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.