2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Arkansas State at Louisiana
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Cajun Field
Arkansas State
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -11.6
- National rank
- 105
- Proj. wins
- 5.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Louisiana
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -10.6
- National rank
- 102
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Arkansas State
42%
Louisiana
58%
Louisiana 90% CI: 49% – 67% Δ rating 1.0
Louisiana is the model's favorite at 58%. Arkansas State has a 42% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.6 rating points baked in for Louisiana — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Arkansas State offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Louisiana offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Cajun Field
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No