Search 4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Louisiana

Ragin' Cajuns · Sun Belt

GIE rank
#64
of 138 FBS
Rating
1568
2026 Week 11
Record
5-3
2026 season
Proj record
8-4
12-game season

Head coach Michael Desormeaux Year 5 with Louisiana

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
7.9
2.9 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
6 to 9
Final rank (90%)
#60 (46–81)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
2%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Louisiana's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 6 vs Lamar Non-FBS Win, 38-7 Final
Wk 2 Sep 13 at USC Big Ten Loss, 30-49 Final
Wk 3 Sep 20 vs UAB American Athletic Win, 21-14 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Charlotte American Athletic Win, 34-7 Final
Wk 5 Oct 4 vs Arkansas State Sun Belt Win, 23-20 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 at Louisiana Tech Sun Belt Loss, 31-32 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Troy Sun Belt Win, 33-6 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Southern Miss Sun Belt Loss, 31-35 Final
Wk 9 Bye
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs South Alabama Sun Belt Win probability: 86%
Wk 11 Nov 13 at UL Monroe Sun Belt Win probability: 94%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Coastal Carolina Sun Belt Win probability: 84%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Georgia State Sun Belt Win probability: 71%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Louisiana: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Louisiana sits at 68th overall with a 5–3 record, but GIE sees little daylight ahead: the model projects 7.9 expected wins for the season and assigns essentially no playoff probability. Last week's 35–31 road loss to Southern Miss…

  • Recap

    Louisiana: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Louisiana sits at 4–1 after a narrow 23–20 home win over Arkansas State in Week 5, a result that kept the Cajuns' rating flat at –3. GIE projects 8.9 expected wins for the season, though the playoff probability remains at zero—the gap…

  • Recap

    Louisiana: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Louisiana opened with a dominant 38–7 win over Lamar, but the rating hasn't budged—GIE still pegs them at 102nd nationally with a -10.6 mark. That's the real story: one big result against a weak opponent doesn't shift the model's view of…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

D'Wayne' Winfield

GIE projects a 5.1 rating drop and a 20.6pp shift in playoff probability if Louisiana loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

84 score

  • Quarterback 92% (4/5)
  • Offensive line 94% (17/18) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 57% (24/27)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 73% (26/28)
  • Secondary 99% (22/23)
  • Special teams 100% (5/6)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−1.4 rating

5 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Louisiana incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Anthony Reagan Jr.RB From Howard Howard 50
Princeton MalbrueLB From LSU LSU 2
Jayce MitchellOL From Tulane Tulane —
Brodrick StewartDL From Tarleton State Tarleton State —
Tito ChikereDE From East Texas A&M East Texas A&M —

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 36.8%
    49th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.4%
    28th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 34.5%
    40th — below avg
  • Late & close 5.2 yds/play
    55th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.