Conference game
Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Arkansas State 58% Favorite
Coastal Carolina 42% Underdog
Arkansas State is the model's favorite at 58%. Coastal Carolina has a 42% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.6 rating points baked in for Coastal Carolina — venue-specific learned value (n=46 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Arkansas State offense
Higher fit 41 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Coastal Carolina offense
38 / 100 Style-neutral matchup