Conference game
Missouri State at Florida International
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 4:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Missouri State 21% Underdog
Florida International 79% Favorite
Florida International is the model's favorite at 79%. Missouri State has a 21% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.6 rating points baked in for Florida International — venue-specific learned value (n=8 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Missouri State offense
Higher fit 43 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Florida International offense
40 / 100 Style-neutral matchup