Conference game
Troy at South Alabama
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Troy 55% Favorite
South Alabama 45% Underdog
Troy is the model's favorite at 55%. South Alabama has a 45% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.0 rating points baked in for South Alabama — venue-specific learned value (n=36 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Troy offense
37 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
South Alabama offense
Higher fit 38 / 100 Style-neutral matchup