2026 Week 11 · Conference game
Troy at South Alabama
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Hancock Whitney Stadium
Troy
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -8.0
- National rank
- 97
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
South Alabama
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -14.6
- National rank
- 116
- Proj. wins
- 4.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Troy
70%
South Alabama
30%
South Alabama 90% CI: 22% – 38% Δ rating 6.6
Troy is the model's favorite at 70%. South Alabama has a 30% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.3 rating points baked in for South Alabama — venue-specific learned value (n=33 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Troy offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
South Alabama offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Hancock Whitney Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No