South Alabama
Jaguars · Sun Belt
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W2
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
- vs SE LouisianaHome · Sep 5
- vs SE LouisianaHome · Sep 5
- vs SE LouisianaHome · Sep 5
- vs SE LouisianaHome · Sep 5
- vs SE LouisianaHome · Sep 5
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 100% (4/4 )
- Offensive line 87% (20/23 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 62% (26/30 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 50% (19/27 )
- Secondary 46% (20/24 )
- Special teams 91% (7/8 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
14 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Everett Hunter TE ← Nicholls 56 impact
- Seidrion Langston LB ← UL Monroe 33 impact
- Terry Kirksey Jr LB ← Arkansas State 28 impact
- Christian Ross LB ← Holy Cross 6 impact
- DJ Moore S ← Georgia Tech 3 impact
- Mase Lewis DL ← McNeese 1 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 41.3% 76th — strong
- Red-zone TD rate 16.3% 67th — average
- 4th-down aggression 52.4% 95th — elite
- Late & close 5.2 yds/play 55th — average
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5vsSE Louisiana—
- Wk 2Sep 12
atTulaneAmerican Athletic17%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19
vsOhioMid-American49%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
atKentuckySEC6%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
vsUL MonroeSun Belt89%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 8
atArkansas StateSun Belt33%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 20
atMarshallSun Belt25%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
vsLouisiana TechSun Belt41%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
atLouisianaSun Belt31%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsTroySun Belt37%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atSouthern MissSun Belt61%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 27
vsApp StateSun Belt52%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.