Conference game
South Alabama at Southern Miss
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
South Alabama 62% Favorite
Southern Miss 38% Underdog
South Alabama is the model's favorite at 62%. Southern Miss has a 38% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.5 rating points baked in for Southern Miss — venue-specific learned value (n=48 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
South Alabama offense
35 / 100 Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Southern Miss offense
Higher fit 37 / 100 Style-neutral matchup