Search 4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Miami

Hurricanes · ACC

GIE rank
#1
of 138 FBS
Rating
1839
2026 Week 11
Record
8-0
2026 season
Proj record
11-1
12-game season

Head coach Mario Cristobal Year 5 with Miami

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
11.0
3.0 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
10 to 12
Final rank (90%)
#2 (1–4)
Make playoff
100%
Win conference
89%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Miami's playoff odds. Make playoff 100%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 at Stanford ACC Win, 45-6 Final
Wk 2 Sep 11 vs Florida A&M Non-FBS Win, 77-7 Final
Wk 3 Sep 18 at Wake Forest ACC Win, 33-20 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Central Michigan Mid-American Win, 52-3 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 at Clemson ACC Win, 41-13 Final
Wk 6 Bye
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Florida State ACC Win, 43-35 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs Pittsburgh ACC Win, 52-23 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at North Carolina ACC Win, 38-35 Final
Wk 10 Nov 8 at Notre Dame FBS Independents Win probability: 41%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Duke ACC Win probability: 93%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Virginia Tech ACC Win probability: 91%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Boston College ACC Win probability: 97%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Miami: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Miami sits at No. 5 overall, undefeated through five games with a 25.7 rating that hasn't budged week-over-week—a sign the Hurricanes are performing exactly to expectation rather than trending up or down. Their most recent statement came…

  • Recap

    Miami: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Miami sits at No. 7 nationally after dismantling Stanford 45–6 in Week 1, a statement opener that left the rating unchanged at 22. The Hurricanes are 1–0 and projecting toward 9.6 wins on the season, with a 66% chance of making the…

  • Recap

    Miami: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Miami sits at No. 9 nationally with a 13–3 record and a GIE rating of 20.7. The Hurricanes dismantled Pittsburgh 38–7 on the road in Week 14, a dominant performance that underscored their offensive firepower and defensive discipline. That…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

42 score

  • Quarterback 0% (5/7)
  • Offensive line 56% (10/18) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 70% (20/32)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 45% (18/34)
  • Secondary 60% (14/22)
  • Special teams 80% (4/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.9 rating

12 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Miami incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Damon Wilson IIDL From Missouri Missouri 227
Cooper BarkateWR From Duke Duke 202
Omar ThorntonDB From Boston College Boston College 177
Darian MensahQB From Duke Duke 163
Cam VaughnWR From West Virginia West Virginia 104
Vandrevius JacobsWR From South Carolina South Carolina 100

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 40.0%
    69th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 17.2%
    73th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 40.3%
    67th — average
  • Late & close 4.5 yds/play
    33th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.