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Tulsa

Golden Hurricane · American Athletic

GIE rank
#91
of 138 FBS
Rating
1492
2026 Week 11
Record
4-4
2026 season
Proj record
6-6
12-game season

Head coach Tre Lamb Year 2 with Tulsa

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
5.9
1.9 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
5 to 7
Final rank (90%)
#89 (75–104)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Tulsa's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Oklahoma State Big 12 Win, 24-10 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at Sam Houston Conference USA Win, 23-17 Final
Wk 3 Sep 20 vs East Texas A&M Non-FBS Win, 42-0 Final
Wk 4 Sep 27 at Arkansas SEC Loss, 6-34 Final
Wk 5 Oct 2 vs North Texas American Athletic Loss, 44-45 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 at Navy American Athletic Loss, 26-34 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Rice American Athletic Win, 38-17 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs Army American Athletic Loss, 35-38 Final
Wk 9 Bye
Wk 10 Nov 7 at Tulane American Athletic Win probability: 61%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Florida Atlantic American Athletic Win probability: 61%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Charlotte American Athletic Win probability: 96%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at UTSA American Athletic Win probability: 26%

Latest stories

Stories about Tulsa will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Baylor Hayes

GIE projects a 0.7 rating drop and a 2.6pp shift in playoff probability if Tulsa loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

65 score

  • Quarterback 83% (3/4)
  • Offensive line 89% (16/18) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 22% (17/27)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 55% (24/32)
  • Secondary 96% (15/17)
  • Special teams 12% (5/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.3 rating

27 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Tulsa incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Trequan JonesRB From Old Dominion Old Dominion 113
David Wells Jr.WR From Oregon State Oregon State 92
Thomas DavisDL From App State App State 92
Devin HightowerLB From UAB UAB 90
DJ McKinneyRB From New Mexico New Mexico 88
Javon RossWR From Bethune-Cookman Bethune-Cookman 62

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 36.1%
    44th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 15.6%
    60th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 46.5%
    89th — strong
  • Late & close 5.7 yds/play
    67th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.