Kansas State: 2026 Week 7 recap

Kansas State holds steady at No. 23 after dropping a 31–26 road decision to Cincinnati in Week 4—a result that left the Wildcats' rating unchanged despite the loss. The team sits at 3–1, but GIE's projection of 7.6 expected wins suggests real structural gaps, particularly in red-zone efficiency (17.6% touchdown rate) and third-down conversions (36.2%), which have constrained scoring opportunities even in victories. The Wildcats' late-game leverage performance of 6.92 indicates they've kept games close, but fourth-down aggression at 43.8% hints at desperation creeping in. Houston visits Manhattan this week—a chance to stabilize the offense and prove the 3–1 mark reflects genuine progress rather than narrow escapes. Playoff odds remain microscopic at 1.28%, a reality check for a team that needs to solve efficiency issues to climb.