Search 4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Kansas State

Wildcats · Big 12

GIE rank
#85
of 138 FBS
Rating
1500
2026 Week 11
Record
4-4
2026 season
Proj record
5-7
12-game season

Head coach Collin Klein Year 1 with Kansas State

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
5.4
1.4 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
4 to 7
Final rank (90%)
#88 (68–106)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Kansas State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Nicholls Non-FBS Win, 71-3 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Washington State Pac-12 Win, 34-7 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Tulane American Athletic Win, 31-20 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Cincinnati Big 12 Loss, 26-31 Final
Wk 5 Bye
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Houston Big 12 Loss, 16-35 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Kansas Big 12 Win, 35-24 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Arizona State Big 12 Loss, 17-28 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Colorado Big 12 Loss, 24-27 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Oklahoma State Big 12 Win probability: 47%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at TCU Big 12 Win probability: 43%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Arizona Big 12 Win probability: 36%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Iowa State Big 12 Win probability: 72%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Kansas State: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Kansas State sits at 4–4 after dropping a three-point road decision to Colorado in Week 9, a result that left the rating unchanged at 8.8 and ranked 39th overall. The Wildcats' offensive efficiency remains the core problem: a red-zone…

  • Recap

    Kansas State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Kansas State holds steady at No. 23 after dropping a 31–26 road decision to Cincinnati in Week 4—a result that left the Wildcats' rating unchanged despite the loss. The team sits at 3–1, but GIE's projection of 7.6 expected wins suggests…

  • Recap

    Kansas State: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Kansas State sits at No. 34 overall with a 1–0 record after dismantling Nicholls 71–3 in Week 1, though that dominant showing hasn't budged the model's rating—it remains at 9.2. The lopsided victory masks some underlying concerns: the…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

64 score

  • Quarterback 100% (4/5)
  • Offensive line 50% (10/20) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 57% (10/27)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 20% (13/29)
  • Secondary 42% (13/22)
  • Special teams 100% (3/7)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+1.4 rating

26 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Kansas State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Elijah HillDE From Kennesaw State Kennesaw State 208
Mekhi MasonLB From Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech 153
Wendell GregoryDE From Oklahoma State Oklahoma State 126
Rodney Fields Jr.RB From Oklahoma State Oklahoma State 124
Ja'Son PrevardS From Virginia Virginia 96
Koy BeasleyS From Miami (OH) Miami (OH) 88

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 36.2%
    45th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 17.6%
    76th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 43.8%
    82th — strong
  • Late & close 6.9 yds/play
    89th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.