Penn State: 2026 Week 11 recap

Penn State sits at 4–4 after a decisive 31–17 home win over Purdue in Week 9, though that victory hasn't budged the needle—the model holds them at a 9.3 rating, ranked 36th. The red zone remains a chronic weak spot: a 15.3% touchdown rate there suggests the offense is leaving points on the field in moments that matter most. GIE projects 6.3 expected wins for the season and gives them a zero percent shot at either the playoff or conference title, a stark reality check for a program that entered 2026 with higher aspirations. Penn State faces Washington on the road this week—a matchup against a fellow tournament-adjacent team where a result could still shuffle the bowl calculus, though the model suggests meaningful postseason hopes have already evaporated.