Conference game
Auburn at Mississippi State
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
Auburn 41% Underdog
Mississippi State 59% Favorite
Mississippi State is the model's favorite at 59%. Auburn has a 41% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.4 rating points baked in for Mississippi State — venue-specific learned value (n=58 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Auburn offense
Higher fit 41 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Mississippi State offense
29 / 100 Style-neutral matchup