Bulldogs · SEC
Head coach Jeff Lebby Year 3 with Mississippi State
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
No remaining game changes Mississippi State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs UL Monroe Sun Belt | Win, 62-13 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | at Minnesota Big Ten | Win, 38-13 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | at South Carolina SEC | Win, 41-34 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs Missouri SEC | Win, 31-24 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | vs Alabama SEC | Loss, 23-56 Final |
| Wk 6 | Bye | |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | at LSU SEC | Loss, 0-31 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | vs Oklahoma SEC | Loss, 15-23 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | at Texas SEC | Loss, 3-31 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | vs Vanderbilt SEC | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Auburn SEC | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Tennessee Tech Non-FBS | No win prob. |
| Wk 13 Nov 27 | at Ole Miss SEC | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a -5.2 rating drop and a -20.6pp shift in playoff probability if Mississippi State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
43 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−0.3 rating
28 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus WilliamsS From Rice | Rice | 105 |
| Marquis JohnsonWR From Missouri | Missouri | 63 |
| Quentin TaylorCB From Iowa State | Iowa State | 62 |
| AJ SwannQB From App State | App State | 61 |
| Eddie Kelly Jr.DL From West Virginia | West Virginia | 44 |
| Jayson JenkinsDL From Florida State | Florida State | 41 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
