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Auburn

Tigers · SEC

GIE rank
#78
of 138 FBS
Rating
1522
2026 Week 11
Record
4-4
2026 season
Proj record
6-6
12-game season

Head coach Alex Golesh Year 2 with Auburn

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
6.0
2.0 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
4 to 7
Final rank (90%)
#79 (63–96)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Auburn's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Baylor Big 12 · neutral Win, 17-16 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Southern Miss Sun Belt Win, 43-8 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Florida SEC Loss, 39-44 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Vanderbilt SEC Win, 21-15 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 at Tennessee SEC Loss, 14-24 Final
Wk 6 Bye
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Georgia SEC Win, 27-24 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs LSU SEC Loss, 17-38 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Ole Miss SEC Loss, 15-45 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Arkansas SEC Win probability: 76%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Mississippi State SEC Win probability: 44%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Samford Non-FBS No win prob.
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Alabama SEC Win probability: 11%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Auburn: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Auburn sits at 51st overall with a 4–4 record and a rating of 6.5, unchanged from last week despite a 45–15 loss at Ole Miss that laid bare the team's offensive struggles. The red-zone TD rate of 12% tells the real story—Auburn is leaving…

  • Recap

    Auburn: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Auburn sits at 3–2 after dropping last week's road contest at Tennessee 24–14, a loss that left the Tigers' rating unchanged at 11.4 and ranked 31st overall. The stagnant rating reflects a season defined by inconsistency: the offense has…

  • Recap

    Auburn: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Auburn sits at No. 26 after a narrow 17–16 home win over Baylor in Week 1—a one-point escape that masks some underlying offensive inefficiency. The Tigers' rating held steady this week at 11.5, suggesting GIE views that squeaker as fairly…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Jackson Arnold

GIE projects a -4.0 rating drop and a -15.8pp shift in playoff probability if Auburn loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

31 score

  • Quarterback 0% (2/5)
  • Offensive line 30% (6/20) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 32% (11/27)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 51% (14/29)
  • Secondary 61% (12/22)
  • Special teams 99% (6/9)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+2.2 rating

38 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Auburn incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Byrum BrownQB From South Florida South Florida 172
Cody SiglerDL From Arkansas State Arkansas State 170
Keshaun SingletonWR From South Florida South Florida 160
Fred Gaskin IIIS From South Florida South Florida 130
Bryson WashingtonRB From Baylor Baylor 123
Jeremiah KogerWR From South Florida South Florida 109

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 38.1%
    59th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 11.6%
    24th — bottom tier
  • 4th-down aggression 40.9%
    70th — strong
  • Late & close 3.3 yds/play
    17th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.