Conference game
Texas State at Oregon State
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 10:30 PM EST
GIE win probability
Texas State 25% Underdog
Oregon State 75% Favorite
Oregon State is the model's favorite at 75%. Texas State has a 25% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.7 rating points baked in for Oregon State — venue-specific night-game value (n=51 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Texas State offense
35 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Oregon State offense
Higher fit 38 / 100 Style-neutral matchup