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Oregon State

Beavers · Pac-12

GIE rank
#49
of 138 FBS
Rating
1611
2026 Week 11
Record
5-3
2026 season
Proj record
7-4
11-game season

Head coach JaMarcus Shephard Year 1 with Oregon State

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
6.6
1.6 more wins in 3 left
Win range (90%)
5 to 8
Final rank (90%)
#49 (35–66)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Oregon State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 at Houston Big 12 Loss, 20-33 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Texas Tech Big 12 Loss, 24-35 Final
Wk 3 Sep 20 vs Montana Non-FBS Win, 52-17 Final
Wk 4 Sep 27 at UTEP Mountain West Win, 33-7 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 at Colorado State Pac-12 Win, 56-26 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs San Diego State Pac-12 Win, 66-14 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Washington State Pac-12 Win, 48-30 Final
Wk 8 Bye
Wk 9 Nov 1 at Fresno State Pac-12 Loss, 22-38 Final
Wk 10 Nov 8 vs Texas State Pac-12 Win probability: 72%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Boise State Pac-12 Win probability: 30%
Wk 12 Nov 22 vs Utah State Pac-12 Win probability: 91%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Oregon State: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Oregon State sits at No. 50 with a 5–3 record, holding steady at a 6.6 rating after last week's 38–22 loss at Fresno State. The Beavers haven't gained ground in GIE's assessment, a reflection of offensive inconsistency—their red-zone…

  • Recap

    Oregon State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Oregon State sits at 3–2 after a dominant 56–26 road win over Colorado State in Week 5, though GIE's rating hasn't shifted—the Beavers remain ranked 65th with a 1.2 mark. The lopsided victory masks some underlying concerns: a red-zone TD…

  • Recap

    Oregon State: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Oregon State sits at 0–1 after dropping Week 1 to Houston 33–20, and GIE has the Beavers holding steady at rank 89 with a rating of –5.6. The offensive struggles are real: red-zone TD rate of 19% and third-down conversion at 37% tell the…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Maalik Murphy

GIE projects a -0.5 rating drop and a -2.1pp shift in playoff probability if Oregon State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

58 score

  • Quarterback 64% (2/4)
  • Offensive line 67% (14/21) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 24% (15/27)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 59% (24/33)
  • Secondary 69% (19/22)
  • Special teams 100% (6/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.5 rating

21 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Oregon State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Eric OlsenTE From Utah Tech Utah Tech 117
Xayvion NolandWR From UT Rio Grande Valley UT Rio Grande Valley 76
Braden AtkinsonQB From Mercer Mercer 75
Adonis McDanielWR From Mercer Mercer 64
DeCorion TempleTE From Central Michigan Central Michigan 56
Dylan LayneLB From Idaho Idaho 15

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 37.2%
    52th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 18.6%
    82th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 30.3%
    22th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 5.7 yds/play
    67th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.