Arkansas State at Memphis
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 7:00 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arkansas State | 3 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
 Memphis Winner | 0 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 42 |
GIE pre-game call: Memphis at 86%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Arkansas State 14% Underdog
Memphis 86% Favorite
Memphis is the model's favorite at 86%. Arkansas State has a 14% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.4 rating points baked in for Memphis — venue-specific night-game value (n=57 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- Memphis recap Memphis: 2026 Week 11 recap Memphis sits at 7–2 after a dominant 49–22 win over Army in Week 9, holding a rating of 7 and ranking 46th per GIE. The Tigers haven't budged in the model's assessment—their rating stayed flat week-over-week—suggesting that dominance…
- Arkansas State recap Arkansas State: 2026 Week 11 recap Arkansas State sits at 4–4 after a 38–32 win over Georgia State in Week 8, but GIE's rating hasn't budged—still holding at –7 and ranked 97th overall. The Red Wolves' efficiency metrics reveal the tension: a 12% red-zone touchdown rate…