2026 Week 5 · Conference game
UTSA at Rice
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Rice Stadium
UTSA
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -1.1
- National rank
- 71
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Rice
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -15.3
- National rank
- 120
- Proj. wins
- 2.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
UTSA
78%
Rice
22%
Rice 90% CI: 17% – 30% Δ rating 14.2
UTSA is the model's favorite at 78%. Rice has a 22% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.3 rating points baked in for Rice — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
UTSA offense
43 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Rice offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Rice Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No