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Rice

Owls · American Athletic

GIE rank
#132
of 138 FBS
Rating
1314
2026 Week 11
Record
1-7
2026 season
Proj record
2-10
12-game season

Head coach Scott Abell Year 2 with Rice

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
2.0
1.0 more win in 4 left
Win range (90%)
1 to 3
Final rank (90%)
#132 (126–136)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Rice's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Houston Christian Non-FBS Win, 31-3 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at Notre Dame FBS Independents Loss, 0-52 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Western Michigan Mid-American Loss, 21-28 Final
Wk 4 Sep 27 at Fresno State Pac-12 Loss, 24-38 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs UTSA American Athletic Loss, 14-16 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 at East Carolina American Athletic Loss, 12-28 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Tulsa American Athletic Loss, 17-38 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Florida Atlantic American Athletic Loss, 49-51 Final
Wk 9 Bye
Wk 10 Nov 7 at North Texas American Athletic Win probability: 12%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Tulane American Athletic Win probability: 39%
Wk 12 Nov 20 at Temple American Athletic Win probability: 25%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Army American Athletic Win probability: 17%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Rice: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Rice remains anchored at 122nd overall following a 51-49 road loss to Florida Atlantic in Week 8, a defeat that underscores their offensive struggles in the moments that matter most. A red-zone TD rate of 21% explains much of the…

  • Recap

    Rice: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Rice sits at 1–4 with a rating of –15.1, unchanged from last week after falling to UTSA 16–14 at home in Week 5—a tight loss that underscores the Owls' offensive struggles. Their red-zone touchdown rate of 21% and third-down conversion…

  • Recap

    Rice: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Rice sits at 120th in GIE ratings after a dominant 31–3 win over Houston Christian in Week 1, though the rating held steady heading into this week—a signal the model views that result within expected parameters for the Owls' talent level.…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Chase Jenkins

GIE projects a -3.0 rating drop and a -11.8pp shift in playoff probability if Rice loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

29 score

  • Quarterback 5% (2/5)
  • Offensive line 58% (11/19) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 51% (15/30)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 22% (15/27)
  • Secondary 24% (7/21)
  • Special teams 8% (1/4)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−0.7 rating

23 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Rice incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Koa AkuiS From Sacramento State Sacramento State 90
Stone CombsLB From Nevada Nevada 75
AJ BrownS From UAB UAB 56
Max MoseyWR From Holy Cross Holy Cross 52
Austin HarnetiauxLB From Nevada Nevada 35
Tariq WatsonCB From UAB UAB 21

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 31.4%
    21th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 20.9%
    90th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 37.2%
    56th — average
  • Late & close 3.2 yds/play
    16th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.