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Jacksonville State

Gamecocks · Conference USA

GIE rank
#42
of 138 FBS
Rating
1631
2026 Week 11
Record
6-2
2026 season
Proj record
9-3
12-game season

Head coach Charles Kelly Year 2 with Jacksonville State

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
9.0
3.0 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
8 to 10
Final rank (90%)
#40 (28–56)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
4%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Jacksonville State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Aug 29 at North Dakota State Mountain West Loss, 7-33 Final
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Eastern Kentucky Non-FBS Win, 49-7 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at Ohio Mid-American Loss, 27-29 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Georgia Southern Sun Belt Win, 31-27 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Middle Tennessee Conference USA Win, 23-13 Final
Wk 5 Bye
Wk 6 Oct 7 at Kennesaw State Conference USA Win, 27-26 Final
Wk 7 Oct 14 vs Florida International Conference USA Win, 27-24 Final
Wk 8 Bye
Wk 9 Oct 29 at New Mexico State Conference USA Win, 24-0 Final
Wk 10 Nov 8 vs Sam Houston Conference USA Win probability: 90%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Western Kentucky Conference USA Win probability: 69%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Missouri State Conference USA Win probability: 89%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Delaware Conference USA Win probability: 70%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Jacksonville State: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Jacksonville State sits at 6–2 with a rating of –2.6, holding rank 84 after a 24–0 win over New Mexico State in Week 9. The Gamecocks haven't budged in GIE's assessment despite the dominant road result—a sign that the model sees the…

  • Recap

    Jacksonville State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Jacksonville State sits at 3–2 after a Week 4 win over Middle Tennessee, holding a rating of –2.2 and ranking 77th per GIE. The Gamecocks haven't moved in the model's assessment since last week, suggesting the victory merely confirmed…

  • Recap

    Jacksonville State: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Jacksonville State remains ranked 95th by GIE after a flat week that saw no movement in its rating despite the 1–1 record. The Gamecocks' dominant 49–7 win over Eastern Kentucky offered little predictive signal for where this team truly…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Caden Creel

GIE projects a -0.1 rating drop and a -0.3pp shift in playoff probability if Jacksonville State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

58 score

  • Quarterback 72% (3/6)
  • Offensive line 61% (11/18) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 32% (22/34)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 56% (16/28)
  • Secondary 51% (12/28)
  • Special teams 88% (3/7)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−1.1 rating

24 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Jacksonville State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Ronnel JohnsonWR From Missouri State Missouri State 91
Darius CannonWR From Murray State Murray State 69
Marquis HoodDL From North Carolina A&T North Carolina A&T 10
Mikey RosaLB From The Citadel The Citadel 10
Rob Billings IVS From Clemson Clemson 5
David Alpers IIITE From South Dakota State South Dakota State 1

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 36.0%
    43th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 15.6%
    60th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 31.1%
    27th — below avg
  • Late & close 5.5 yds/play
    61th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.