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Oklahoma

Sooners · SEC

GIE rank
#76
of 138 FBS
Rating
1531
2026 Week 11
Record
4-4
2026 season
Proj record
5-7
12-game season

Head coach Brent Venables Year 5 with Oklahoma

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
5.4
1.4 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
4 to 7
Final rank (90%)
#78 (59–95)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Oklahoma's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs UTEP Mountain West Win, 51-0 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at Michigan Big Ten Loss, 10-17 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs New Mexico Mountain West Win, 14-6 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Georgia SEC Loss, 13-41 Final
Wk 5 Bye
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Texas SEC · neutral Win, 27-24 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Kentucky SEC Loss, 13-21 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Mississippi State SEC Win, 23-15 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs South Carolina SEC Loss, 25-42 Final
Wk 10 Nov 8 at Florida SEC Win probability: 41%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Ole Miss SEC Win probability: 44%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Texas A&M SEC Win probability: 60%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Missouri SEC Win probability: 31%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Oklahoma: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Oklahoma sits at 4–4 with a rating of 10.3, unchanged from last week despite a 42–25 loss at home to South Carolina in Week 9. That defeat exposed real offensive inefficiency: a red-zone TD rate of just 18% and third-down conversions at…

  • Recap

    Oklahoma: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Oklahoma sits at 27th in the latest ratings with a 2-2 record, and the needle hasn't budged since last week—a sign that the Georgia loss (41-13) still defines the program's standing. That red-zone efficiency, sitting at 18%, explains much…

  • Recap

    Oklahoma: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Oklahoma sits at No. 11 with a 1–0 record and a rating of 18.8, unchanged from last week despite the dominant 51–0 win over UTEP in Week 1. The shutout was comprehensive, but the situational numbers reveal some churn: a red-zone touchdown…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

John Mateer

GIE projects a 7.1 rating drop and a 28.5pp shift in playoff probability if Oklahoma loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

71 score

  • Quarterback 94% (3/4)
  • Offensive line 56% (10/18) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 55% (15/33)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 54% (20/30)
  • Secondary 71% (12/19)
  • Special teams 100% (7/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+1.1 rating

20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Oklahoma incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Trell HarrisWR From Virginia Virginia 155
Rocky BeersTE From Colorado State Colorado State 152
Braxton FelyDL From Boise State Boise State 132
Cole SullivanLB From Michigan Michigan 107
Hayden HansenTE From Florida Florida 100
Lloyd AvantRB From Colorado State Colorado State 95

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 38.7%
    63th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 17.6%
    76th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 34.4%
    40th — below avg
  • Late & close 6.1 yds/play
    76th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.