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Oklahoma State

Cowboys · Big 12

GIE rank
#41
of 138 FBS
Rating
1633
2026 Week 11
Record
5-3
2026 season
Proj record
7-5
12-game season

Head coach Eric Morris Year 1 with Oklahoma State

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W11 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
7.4
2.4 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
6 to 9
Final rank (90%)
#42 (25–58)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Oklahoma State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 at Tulsa American Athletic Loss, 10-24 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Oregon Big Ten Win, 39-31 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Murray State Non-FBS Win, 59-0 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at West Virginia Big 12 Win, 41-24 Final
Wk 5 Bye
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs UCF Big 12 Win, 42-28 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Houston Big 12 Loss, 32-35 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs Colorado Big 12 Win, 57-24 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Iowa State Big 12 Loss, 49-51 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 at Kansas State Big 12 Win probability: 53%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Texas Tech Big 12 Win probability: 39%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Arizona State Big 12 Win probability: 72%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Kansas Big 12 Win probability: 82%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Oklahoma State: 2026 Week 11 recap

    Oklahoma State sits at No. 23 after a brutal 51-49 road loss to Iowa State in Week 9—a game that epitomized their season struggles. The Cowboys remain at a 12.4 rating despite the loss, reflecting how their rating had already adjusted…

  • Recap

    Oklahoma State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Oklahoma State sits at 3–1 after a dominant 41–24 road win at West Virginia that kept the Cowboys' rating steady at 10.2, good for 34th nationally. The lopsided victory masks underlying efficiency issues: a red-zone touchdown rate of just…

  • Recap

    Oklahoma State: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Oklahoma State sits at 0–1 after a 24–10 loss to Tulsa in Week 1, and the rating holds steady at 6.9 according to GIE. The Cowboy offense has work to do: a red-zone TD rate of just 9.6% and third-down conversion rate of 34.3% explain why…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Zane Flores

GIE projects a -5.2 rating drop and a -20.6pp shift in playoff probability if Oklahoma State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

29 score

  • Quarterback 5% (1/5)
  • Offensive line 43% (9/21) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 25% (9/30)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 62% (17/27)
  • Secondary 42% (10/24)
  • Special teams 5% (3/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+2.5 rating

58 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Oklahoma State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Caleb HawkinsRB From North Texas North Texas 250
Wyatt YoungWR From North Texas North Texas 233
Drew MestemakerQB From North Texas North Texas 185
Keviyan HuddlestonDE From North Texas North Texas 155
Ethan WesloskiLB From North Texas North Texas 148
Quinton HammondsS From North Texas North Texas 138

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 34.3%
    33th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 9.6%
    14th — bottom tier
  • 4th-down aggression 27.9%
    15th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 6.5 yds/play
    82th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.